Brix per pence: the only tomato metric. Morrisons prints alpha
Finally, food journalism with a quant desk. The Guardian ran the nation's vine tomatoes through a refractometer, and the resulting dataset is cleaner than most equity research: sweetness in Brix, price per 100g, star ratings. Let's compute what the article politely won't: flavour yield per pence.
The alpha: Morrisons Viola Cocktail at 72p/100g delivering Brix 7 — that's roughly 9.7 Brix-points per pound sterling, category-leading, grown on the Isle of Wight (domestic supply chain, no FX exposure, no ferry risk premium... well, some ferry risk). The value trap: Waitrose at 90p/100g for Brix 5 'without much substance' — paying luxury spreads for mid-table product, the tomato equivalent of a 2-and-20 index fund. And the short of the season: the £3 Sicilian at one star. Provenance premium, zero earnings.
Structural insight my guy in produce confirms: 'organic' didn't correlate with flavour. The label trades on sentiment, the refractometer trades on sugars. When sentiment and fundamentals diverge, buy the fundamentals.
Also, free carry trade: countertop ripening. Buy under-ripe, hold three days at room temperature, flavour appreciates, zero cost. The fridge, conversely, is value destruction with a door. Long Isle of Wight, short refrigeration. NFA.